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Run · made 11 Oct 2026, 19:36 UTC · the petrol station

Run 0204c348a82a

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
16.9
17.0
32.2
9.7(winner)
10.5
13.6
15.3
16.7
30.6
Mon 8
21.4
12.5
14.5
17.0
15.8
10.0(winner)
13.4
25.6
18.3
Tue 9
21.9
23.7
28.4
19.2
19.6
22.7
34.1
13.4(winner)
31.8
Wed 10
17.9
16.5
21.7
12.1
10.7(winner)
15.7
25.2
18.0
22.9
Thu 11
10.9(winner)
12.8
14.1
13.3
15.1
13.7
19.0
13.5
14.8
Fri 12
6.1(winner)
7.6
9.2
13.3
10.5
9.0
10.2
8.6
9.6
Sat 13
8.5
9.7
23.8
9.7
13.1
12.0
10.5
6.2(winner)
22.1
Sun 14
11.4
17.0
31.9
18.4
15.8
11.4(winner)
14.9
12.1
33.9
Mon 15
76.1
97.8
124.0
60.3
37.8(winner)
51.5
70.0
41.5
135.0
Tue 16
57.8
57.9
65.7
37.9
24.3
17.5(winner)
28.1
26.9
63.3
Wed 17
33.1
34.1
43.6
20.7
42.0
46.3
56.1
20.0(winner)
39.0
Thu 18
12.1
10.7
10.6
14.3
10.0
13.8
14.5
15.8
10.0(winner)
Fri 19
29.9
29.6
29.3
25.7(winner)
26.2
27.1
34.3
27.0
27.5
Sat 20
68.3
50.2
41.3
64.3
55.7
27.3(winner)
29.9
54.5
43.1
Sun 21
10.9
22.4
40.9
10.9
11.7
27.3
24.4
10.8(winner)
40.7
Mon 22
41.5
45.2
54.4
27.5
22.1
19.2(winner)
28.6
26.7
62.4
Tue 23
67.7
62.7
68.9
39.2
27.2(winner)
31.4
36.6
39.8
68.2
Wed 24
13.2(winner)
15.3
16.4
23.0
20.8
14.4
21.8
19.9
16.4
Thu 25
145.1
135.3
129.8
108.4
56.1(winner)
75.0
95.9
88.9
132.1
Fri 26
34.3
24.8
23.2
25.3
17.6(winner)
19.3
27.6
25.7
22.0
Sat 27
46.5
34.2
29.2
35.7
22.6
10.1(winner)
12.8
34.9
31.0
Sun 28
63.0
45.2
40.6
39.2
60.8
15.0(winner)
24.7
47.6
40.7
Mon 29
59.4
48.6
56.3
25.0
47.4
17.6(winner)
39.7
27.6
59.1
Tue 30
18.1(winner)
22.3
24.1
34.0
19.6
19.0
21.4
26.8
24.7
Wed 31
10.3(winner)
11.4
13.8
17.1
13.1
15.9
25.3
16.8
14.7
Thu 1
45.9
40.5
44.7
32.7(winner)
42.1
53.7
70.4
33.4
49.3
Fri 2
12.7(winner)
18.3
22.5
17.0
17.2
15.2
18.1
17.9
22.1
Sat 3
14.8(winner)
22.8
36.2
17.4
22.3
18.6
19.1
19.5
36.0
Sun 4
52.2
44.1
43.3
50.6
49.8
48.2
50.3
43.1(winner)
48.5
Mon 5
51.9
64.4
81.5
21.1
34.3
30.7
41.7
15.2(winner)
83.2

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

24.1 %

random-forest

Steadiest

σ 15.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01Random Forestrandom-forest24.1σ 15.6 · 30 d
  2. 02SARIMAX + weathersarimax26.4σ 15.1 · 30 d
  3. 03Prophetprophet26.5σ 16.5 · 30 d
  4. 04Holt-Wintersholt-winters28.7σ 20.3 · 30 d
  5. 05XGBoostxgboost31.1σ 19.7 · 30 d
  6. 06Ensemble v2ensemble-v235.2σ 27.6 · 30 d
  7. 07Same weekdaysame-weekday36.0σ 29.3 · 30 d
  8. 08Thetatheta40.5σ 29.0 · 30 d
  9. 09LSTMlstm41.8σ 30.4 · 30 d

Order · run 0204c348a82a11 Oct 2026

Dataset
station-year · seed 11 · 425e…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
c2c3 5020 5edd

Provenance

Run id
0204c348a82a
Result hash
c2c350205edde5e7e69a5c5ddeaa43af66a1649f83ea5e14de09b9da593a6dd6
Made
11 October 2026, 19:36 UTC
Engine
0.5.0
Git
ea50ce751a4a8f47ba7d03842a270c1b292deebf · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
b7dfb3f9d4606cd2b464126a0fcff4efc2bcfe2303cbcea98471aa59e8a1fc49
Command
run --data ../../results/station-year-seed11.csv --name station-year --seed 11 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/station
Timings
315.373 s in all · same-weekday 0.082 s · ensemble-v2 0.083 s · theta 0.161 s · holt-winters 39.359 s · sarimax 89.399 s · random-forest 70.510 s · xgboost 7.331 s · prophet 16.458 s · lstm 91.924 s

Dataset

Name
station-year
Seed
11
Hash
425e0b0a9fe0abcf28e732d7925c966f0de22d0ba6a4d765ed571e8c4d483ae3
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
13 products
  • AdBlue
  • Car Wash
  • Coffee to Go
  • Cold Drink
  • Diesel
  • EV Charge
  • Ice Bag
  • Ice Cream
  • Premium Diesel
  • Sandwich
  • Unleaded 95
  • Unleaded 98
  • Water 1.5 L