Skip to content
mape tournament

Run 8e11a0431650 · 30 origin dates · 12 dishes · 3 models

Who Forecast Each Day Best?

Every model forecasts tomorrow’s portions of every dish from the days before it. Each tile is that day’s MAPE: lower is better, and the tomato corner marks the winner.

MAPE per model per origin date
Sep–Oct 2025Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2theta
Fri 5
31.9
30.5(winner)
34.0
Sat 6
23.1(winner)
27.6
35.5
Sun 7
30.5
29.7(winner)
33.7
Mon 8 closed
ND
ND
ND
Tue 9
26.0
25.1(winner)
39.5
Wed 10
23.3(winner)
26.0
34.3
Thu 11
22.1
22.1(winner)
25.9
Fri 12
26.4
25.6(winner)
31.0
Sat 13
24.1(winner)
25.6
36.5
Sun 14
23.0(winner)
25.3
28.3
Mon 15 closed
ND
ND
ND
Tue 16
39.7(winner)
44.7
50.6
Wed 17
33.3(winner)
35.8
44.2
Thu 18
15.3(winner)
16.6
28.2
Fri 19
40.4
32.8
29.6(winner)
Sat 20
23.8(winner)
27.5
43.5
Sun 21
30.9
25.7(winner)
29.7
Mon 22 closed
ND
ND
ND
Tue 23
32.2(winner)
39.0
52.3
Wed 24
28.0(winner)
30.6
37.0
Thu 25
34.1
28.8
28.7(winner)
Fri 26
23.4(winner)
26.0
33.4
Sat 27
33.8
28.9(winner)
29.1
Sun 28
20.1
18.7(winner)
33.5
Mon 29 closed
ND
ND
ND
Tue 30
29.3(winner)
36.3
50.7
Wed 1
42.3(winner)
47.1
53.1
Thu 2
29.3
26.4
23.7(winner)
Fri 3
25.8(winner)
31.9
39.5
Sat 4
28.4(winner)
28.6
36.3

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

28.5 %

same-weekday

Steadiest

σ 6.3

same-weekday

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01Same weekdaysame-weekday28.5σ 6.3 · 26 d
  2. 02Ensemble v2ensemble-v229.3σ 6.8 · 26 d
  3. 03Thetatheta36.2σ 8.2 · 26 d

Order · run 8e11a04316504 Oct 2026

Dataset
fixture-v1 · seed 42 · 40af…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
3 models · 3 light
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
Result hash
e951 1574 622d