Skip to content
mape tournament
Español

Run · made 11 Oct 2026, 19:39 UTC · the travel agency

Run 92ddd9a606e8

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
33.2
37.4
43.0
27.2
24.7
33.3
20.6(winner)
27.7
33.4
Mon 8
24.1
14.9(winner)
18.5
18.9
20.1
16.8
15.2
19.9
21.3
Tue 9
18.4
22.5
24.1
16.1
14.5(winner)
15.8
18.9
17.4
28.2
Wed 10
15.0
9.6
12.2
10.0
7.3
11.1
4.7(winner)
10.3
14.8
Thu 11
16.4
14.8
16.9
17.3
19.2
20.0
21.5
18.4
14.6(winner)
Fri 12
17.8
21.5
20.4
20.5
18.8
26.9
23.8
18.0
15.4(winner)
Sat 13
31.1
73.3
118.1
27.0
29.8
85.3
64.3
23.8(winner)
101.2
Sun 14
29.2
30.7
39.8
26.8
25.0
37.9
41.2
24.3(winner)
34.4
Mon 15
40.2
32.1
24.5
31.8
33.2
32.1
35.7
30.5
22.9(winner)
Tue 16
13.8
15.0
19.5
15.7
13.8(winner)
16.4
23.1
14.8
21.2
Wed 17
18.5
17.0
20.3
19.3
16.9(winner)
20.3
21.1
18.2
20.9
Thu 18
35.7
36.5
36.1
33.2
33.7
51.0
46.4
33.2(winner)
36.3
Fri 19
42.3
35.3
30.0
20.2(winner)
21.8
30.6
27.0
20.6
24.1
Sat 20
24.2
47.1
87.2
17.0
14.2(winner)
18.3
21.2
18.6
74.9
Sun 21
74.4
68.7
73.0
49.6
49.0
56.4
46.2(winner)
52.1
62.6
Mon 22
13.2
11.6
21.4
9.8
11.6
13.5
12.5
9.0(winner)
24.8
Tue 23
21.0
16.6(winner)
17.5
21.4
22.0
18.4
28.8
21.0
17.8
Wed 24
11.7
9.8
10.4
8.8(winner)
10.1
11.2
9.7
10.4
12.8
Thu 25
69.8
69.8
71.6
71.9
73.8
75.3
73.2
73.6
65.6(winner)
Fri 26
30.1
24.2
21.6(winner)
23.9
23.1
24.0
26.5
23.4
23.7
Sat 27
33.2
52.4
96.6
27.3
20.8
22.0
14.8(winner)
27.7
90.5
Sun 28
22.9
16.0
22.2
9.8
8.9(winner)
16.0
16.9
10.7
18.9
Mon 29
18.7
16.4
29.5
10.9
11.1
17.4
18.7
10.5(winner)
29.8
Tue 30
19.6
28.3
35.1
19.5
18.6(winner)
24.2
20.5
19.0
34.1
Wed 31
12.1
13.2
15.5
12.3
11.9
9.5(winner)
12.6
11.1
15.3
Thu 1
44.8(winner)
56.4
59.6
57.1
62.8
62.4
62.4
59.1
55.2
Fri 2
7.2(winner)
9.2
12.7
11.0
10.3
10.5
11.1
10.4
12.1
Sat 3
16.1
44.2
86.7
12.4
13.8
14.5
11.0(winner)
12.7
80.5
Sun 4
28.0
24.4
31.8
22.2
22.5
21.1
20.5(winner)
22.5
28.0
Mon 5
21.1
17.4(winner)
20.8
19.2
24.3
20.7
17.6
20.8
21.3

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

22.9 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 14.1

holt-winters

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax22.9σ 15.0 · 30 d
  2. 02Holt-Wintersholt-winters22.9σ 14.1 · 30 d
  3. 03Prophetprophet23.0σ 14.6 · 30 d
  4. 04XGBoostxgboost26.3σ 16.7 · 30 d
  5. 05Same weekdaysame-weekday26.8σ 15.3 · 30 d
  6. 06Random Forestrandom-forest27.8σ 19.1 · 30 d
  7. 07Ensemble v2ensemble-v229.5σ 18.6 · 30 d
  8. 08LSTMlstm35.2σ 24.3 · 30 d
  9. 09Thetatheta37.9σ 28.3 · 30 d

Order · run 92ddd9a606e811 Oct 2026

Dataset
tickets-year · seed 13 · f5f6…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
8ac9 b0e8 6440

Provenance

Run id
92ddd9a606e8
Result hash
8ac9b0e864404a0d69208f80a7da7be001e5ea48aa862ca2f746f89474b0eb2a
Made
11 October 2026, 19:39 UTC
Engine
0.5.0
Git
ea50ce751a4a8f47ba7d03842a270c1b292deebf · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
b7dfb3f9d4606cd2b464126a0fcff4efc2bcfe2303cbcea98471aa59e8a1fc49
Command
run --data ../../results/tickets-year-seed13.csv --name tickets-year --seed 13 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/tickets
Timings
162.432 s in all · same-weekday 0.052 s · ensemble-v2 0.052 s · theta 0.098 s · holt-winters 12.237 s · sarimax 51.338 s · random-forest 33.206 s · xgboost 5.850 s · prophet 7.214 s · lstm 52.325 s

Dataset

Name
tickets-year
Seed
13
Hash
f5f6230516806aad361925334bf4b74b9fa4da92bf6099ce498c30c3efabb496
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
8 tickets
  • Amsterdam
  • Lisbon
  • London
  • Madrid
  • New York
  • Palma
  • Paris
  • Rome