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Run · made 11 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC · the hotel

Run e4af42be5992

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
37.2
40.0
51.8
38.1
34.6
38.7
38.2
33.7(winner)
52.6
Mon 8
33.6(winner)
39.1
48.2
37.9
40.1
42.4
47.1
50.2
66.0
Tue 9
34.5
38.4
43.4
24.2
24.1(winner)
30.4
27.7
25.4
53.5
Wed 10
50.4
44.3
38.1(winner)
46.1
47.3
46.2
50.7
45.8
49.3
Thu 11
16.7
15.3
18.4
15.3
15.0(winner)
15.8
15.7
19.9
22.2
Fri 12
15.7
17.2
20.5
14.8
15.7
14.8
14.7
12.7(winner)
23.6
Sat 13
11.8
13.8
21.4
11.1
10.5(winner)
12.2
16.5
12.3
22.9
Sun 14
37.4
49.0
62.3
36.2
34.8
39.6
38.1
34.2(winner)
73.8
Mon 15
40.5(winner)
55.7
73.0
48.9
44.8
53.4
48.4
51.7
84.0
Tue 16
22.4
26.0
34.9
20.0
15.5(winner)
29.8
23.8
18.7
43.5
Wed 17
27.0
25.3
26.2
13.7
13.6(winner)
24.6
23.2
13.9
37.3
Thu 18
26.6
27.7
28.7
25.2
25.1(winner)
26.9
27.8
25.6
27.7
Fri 19
22.2
23.1
23.1
16.9
16.1
14.7
14.3(winner)
18.5
19.7
Sat 20
25.6
32.8
43.7
16.2(winner)
27.4
23.9
21.0
17.3
50.8
Sun 21
39.6
46.6
59.6
34.0
27.5
24.9
20.6(winner)
39.6
71.0
Mon 22
74.8
83.0
103.6
80.3
65.8(winner)
82.2
70.1
80.8
130.1
Tue 23
135.5
132.5
127.8
110.1
88.7
74.0(winner)
96.0
116.0
153.1
Wed 24
41.3
39.4
40.5
32.2
14.7(winner)
25.8
18.9
31.8
58.9
Thu 25
65.3
61.6
61.3
66.6
54.8(winner)
58.2
67.7
65.5
81.4
Fri 26
72.9
64.4
53.9(winner)
70.7
57.3
70.0
71.9
65.3
65.5
Sat 27
28.5(winner)
36.2
46.7
37.6
30.0
36.9
36.5
35.8
52.7
Sun 28
46.0
62.2
81.9
43.6
38.9
46.2
44.7
38.7(winner)
96.6
Mon 29
24.9
22.6
36.0
25.4
25.6
18.4(winner)
19.9
25.8
43.5
Tue 30
25.3
16.9(winner)
17.6
20.9
18.2
26.4
25.2
23.8
26.8
Wed 31
15.5
9.4
10.4
7.7
6.8(winner)
11.4
15.1
14.5
31.2
Thu 1
29.3
31.0
40.2
39.5
35.9
27.5(winner)
30.9
38.9
43.9
Fri 2
102.6
82.0
71.3(winner)
86.8
81.7
91.6
88.1
94.0
88.4
Sat 3
23.4
16.7
20.3
20.2
21.3
18.0
17.0
16.6
12.1(winner)
Sun 4
71.8
70.7
90.8
75.5
72.9
82.3
58.3(winner)
90.6
119.7
Mon 5
15.2
15.0
14.7
12.9
30.2
27.2
30.9
9.7(winner)
28.9

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

34.5 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 21.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax34.5σ 21.1 · 30 d
  2. 02XGBoostxgboost37.3σ 22.3 · 30 d
  3. 03Holt-Wintersholt-winters37.6σ 25.3 · 30 d
  4. 04Random Forestrandom-forest37.8σ 22.3 · 30 d
  5. 05Prophetprophet38.9σ 26.9 · 30 d
  6. 06Same weekdaysame-weekday40.5σ 27.4 · 30 d
  7. 07Ensemble v2ensemble-v241.3σ 26.3 · 30 d
  8. 08Thetatheta47.0σ 27.5 · 30 d
  9. 09LSTMlstm57.7σ 33.8 · 30 d

Order · run e4af42be599211 Oct 2026

Dataset
hotel-year · seed 12 · 6da9…
Window
30 origin days · h = 7 · forecast 7 days ahead
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
80b1 011e 49f5

Provenance

Run id
e4af42be5992
Result hash
80b1011e49f5fca49fd5d8607185345170e6ce428e9a25ee0e9b90a586be994c
Made
11 October 2026, 19:41 UTC
Engine
0.5.0
Git
ea50ce751a4a8f47ba7d03842a270c1b292deebf · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
b7dfb3f9d4606cd2b464126a0fcff4efc2bcfe2303cbcea98471aa59e8a1fc49
Command
run --data ../../results/hotel-year-seed12.csv --name hotel-year --seed 12 --window 30 --horizon 7 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/hotel
Timings
126.623 s in all · same-weekday 0.043 s · ensemble-v2 0.042 s · theta 0.078 s · holt-winters 9.528 s · sarimax 43.496 s · random-forest 22.056 s · xgboost 4.788 s · prophet 5.611 s · lstm 40.916 s

Dataset

Name
hotel-year
Seed
12
Hash
6da919b0acf3aab6e2757bfde9193d01d25ef3c146b66e6c68d6e5d4546b8970
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
6 room nights
  • Breakfasts
  • Family
  • Parking
  • Single
  • Standard Double
  • Superior Sea View