Figures from run 7de368b68d88 · the latest run
Model · rank 03 of 07
Holt-Winters
holt-wintersHeavy · not in the browser
Exponential smoothing with a damped trend and a weekly season. Falls back to the last week’s mean when the history is short or the fit fails.
Avg MAPE
35.8
rank 03 of 07
σ
19.8
lowest: sarimax
OK days
25 / 30
eligible (≥ 80 %)
Day wins
8
of 25 scored days
- holt-winters
- day winner
- MAPE % per origin day · gaps are closed days (ND)
0102030405060708090100110120
Sun 7 DecSun 21 DecSun 4 Jan
Hyperparameters
- trend
- add
- damped_trend
- true
- seasonal
- add
- seasonal_periods
- 7
- Min history
- 14 days
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Order · run 7de368b68d886 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 7 models · 3 light, 4 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
- Result hash
- 7949 b973 4836