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Run · made 9 Oct 2026, 09:28 UTC · the latest run · the restaurant

Run e42c6f452fe9

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
27.9
25.6
28.5
23.7
25.1
29.4
27.4
23.6(winner)
29.0
Mon 8 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 9
27.1
25.8
36.2
25.5
24.8(winner)
29.6
28.8
28.5
24.9
Wed 10
21.6
18.1(winner)
19.5
21.4
23.2
21.9
22.7
22.8
19.0
Thu 11
23.6
22.9
24.2
21.3
22.5
22.5
22.8
20.4(winner)
23.4
Fri 12
32.7
27.3
29.1
32.0
32.0
30.3
34.9
31.8
27.2(winner)
Sat 13
26.0
24.9
34.3
22.3(winner)
22.5
29.3
28.2
22.6
36.0
Sun 14
24.0
25.3
28.1
23.8
22.9(winner)
28.9
30.5
23.7
30.2
Mon 15 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 16
49.4
44.7
54.1
39.7
34.1(winner)
38.5
36.2
46.1
38.3
Wed 17
50.2
48.9
51.2
48.3
52.6
50.0
51.6
54.6
45.1(winner)
Thu 18
26.5
24.2
23.1
22.6
22.2
28.9
26.4
23.2
22.1(winner)
Fri 19
20.0
22.3
29.9
15.7(winner)
17.4
16.7
17.6
16.7
28.8
Sat 20
49.0
41.2
46.5
42.6
39.6
43.5
37.1(winner)
49.0
49.8
Sun 21
31.2
27.4(winner)
30.4
28.1
30.0
31.1
28.8
31.5
31.9
Mon 22 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 23
69.0
69.4
83.3
72.4
59.0
59.9
50.2(winner)
80.9
60.1
Wed 24
118.8
106.5
118.9
112.1
95.3(winner)
118.3
128.3
124.9
108.3
Thu 25
56.2
40.1
42.7
46.8
29.9
42.5
26.6(winner)
61.1
45.7
Fri 26
43.6
28.0
25.9
38.8
24.5(winner)
25.6
25.9
50.1
27.3
Sat 27
39.8
26.9(winner)
31.1
35.5
30.9
30.3
30.3
41.6
33.6
Sun 28
46.0
31.5
31.2
29.4(winner)
33.5
32.6
31.0
39.5
36.9
Mon 29 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 30
25.8
29.4
40.5
26.5
19.8(winner)
29.7
27.5
25.0
27.5
Wed 31
40.1
41.9
37.5
37.4
39.2
40.6
45.9
34.2
33.7(winner)
Thu 1
24.5
18.4(winner)
20.9
22.6
26.8
33.2
44.3
24.4
29.9
Fri 2
28.8
21.8(winner)
24.8
28.6
29.1
29.4
27.4
33.4
26.6
Sat 3
32.7
31.4
36.1
27.9(winner)
30.7
34.1
35.5
29.4
39.7
Sun 4
66.1
59.4
54.4
49.5
48.3(winner)
64.7
64.8
59.5
57.7
Mon 5 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

33.4 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 16.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax33.4σ 16.1 · 25 d
  2. 02Ensemble v2ensemble-v235.3σ 19.1 · 25 d
  3. 03Holt-Wintersholt-winters35.8σ 19.8 · 25 d
  4. 04XGBoostxgboost37.2σ 21.3 · 25 d
  5. 05LSTMlstm37.3σ 17.8 · 25 d
  6. 06Random Forestrandom-forest37.7σ 19.7 · 25 d
  7. 07Thetatheta39.3σ 21.2 · 25 d
  8. 08Prophetprophet39.9σ 23.2 · 25 d
  9. 09Same weekdaysame-weekday40.0σ 21.0 · 25 d

Order · run e42c6f452fe99 Oct 2026

Dataset
synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 5edc…
Result hash
936d 4fbf fe39

Provenance

Run id
e42c6f452fe9
Result hash
936d4fbffe39240b2b845cc71d969179682b54c94cf41065525b0ec110c06e95
Made
9 October 2026, 09:28 UTC
Engine
0.4.0
Git
667d266a55b7ef4ff7ea3f2b6e9ab0d2fcfc3d5e · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
5edc1e8e7767bde6bdc436f646aff517529542f2e56d02929de3b8174fef771a
Command
run --data ../../results/synthetic-year-seed42.csv --name synthetic-year --seed 42 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/weather-9
Timings
527.036 s in all · same-weekday 0.148 s · ensemble-v2 0.153 s · theta 0.304 s · holt-winters 59.563 s · sarimax 135.266 s · random-forest 126.562 s · xgboost 12.303 s · prophet 26.122 s · lstm 166.531 s

Dataset

Name
synthetic-year
Seed
42
Hash
7deaf3510c0d63e4f8b825e1e79bfac67c43b3e91f52e89b8d0788d54a2b9002
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
25 dishes
  • Arancini
  • Bruschetta
  • Caprese Salad
  • Capricciosa
  • Diavola
  • Espresso
  • Garlic Bread
  • Gelato
  • Gnocchi al Pesto
  • Grilled Chicken
  • House Red
  • Lasagna
  • Lemonade
  • Margherita
  • Marinara
  • Minestrone
  • Panna Cotta
  • Penne Arrabbiata
  • Quattro Formaggi
  • Risotto ai Funghi
  • Sea Bass
  • Spaghetti al Pomodoro
  • Summer Salad
  • Tiramisu
  • Veal Milanese