Figures from run 8d956fedfb4f · the latest run
Model · rank 07 of 08
Prophet
prophetHeavy · not in the browser
A trend that can bend where the sales change course, plus a weekly pattern, fitted to each dish’s sales alone. No weather, no calendar.
Avg MAPE
39.9
rank 07 of 08
σ
23.2
lowest: sarimax
OK days
25 / 30
eligible (≥ 80 %)
Day wins
3
of 25 scored days
- prophet
- day winner
- MAPE % per origin day · gaps are closed days (ND)
0102030405060708090100110120130
Sun 7 DecSun 21 DecSun 4 Jan
Hyperparameters
- growth
- linear
- n_changepoints
- 25
- changepoint_range
- 0.8
- changepoint_prior_scale
- 0.05
- seasonality_prior_scale
- 10
- seasonality_mode
- additive
- weekly_seasonality
- true
- yearly_seasonality
- false
- daily_seasonality
- false
- uncertainty_samples
- 0
- algorithm
- LBFGS
- seed
- 42
- Min history
- 14 days
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Order · run 8d956fedfb4f8 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 8 models · 3 light, 5 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b01c…
- Result hash
- e83f 188b 35fa