Figures from run 7de368b68d88 · the latest run
Model · rank 01 of 07
SARIMAX + weather
sarimaxHeavy · not in the browser
A seasonal ARIMA over a seven-day season, given the weather and the calendar’s day types as regressors.
Avg MAPE
33.4
rank 01 of 07
σ
16.1
lowest: sarimax
OK days
25 / 30
eligible (≥ 80 %)
Day wins
8
of 25 scored days
- sarimax
- day winner
- MAPE % per origin day · gaps are closed days (ND)
0102030405060708090100
Sun 7 DecSun 21 DecSun 4 Jan
Hyperparameters
- order
- 1,0,1
- seasonal_order
- 0,1,1,7
- exog
- temp,precip
- Min history
- 28 days
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Order · run 7de368b68d886 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 7 models · 3 light, 4 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
- Result hash
- 7949 b973 4836