Figures from run 7de368b68d88 · the latest run
Model · rank 06 of 07
Theta
thetaLight · runs in the browser in v2
Splits the series into a long-run trend and short-run smoothing, and averages the two lines. Cheap, steady, and hard to beat on a flat week.
Avg MAPE
39.3
rank 06 of 07
σ
21.2
lowest: sarimax
OK days
25 / 30
eligible (≥ 80 %)
Day wins
0
of 25 scored days
- theta
- day winner
- MAPE % per origin day · gaps are closed days (ND)
0102030405060708090100110120
Sun 7 DecSun 21 DecSun 4 Jan
Hyperparameters
- alpha_min
- 0.05
- alpha_max
- 0.95
- alpha_step
- 0.05
- tie_rtol
- 1e-12
- Min history
- 14 days
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Order · run 7de368b68d886 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 7 models · 3 light, 4 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
- Result hash
- 7949 b973 4836