Figures from run 7de368b68d88 · the latest run
Model · rank 04 of 07
XGBoost
xgboostHeavy · not in the browser
Gradient-boosted trees over the same features as the random forest: each tree corrects the errors of the ones before it.
Avg MAPE
37.2
rank 04 of 07
σ
21.3
lowest: sarimax
OK days
25 / 30
eligible (≥ 80 %)
Day wins
3
of 25 scored days
- xgboost
- day winner
- MAPE % per origin day · gaps are closed days (ND)
0102030405060708090100110120130
Sun 7 DecSun 21 DecSun 4 Jan
Hyperparameters
- n_estimators
- 300
- learning_rate
- 0.05
- max_depth
- 6
- subsample
- 0.8
- colsample_bytree
- 0.8
- min_child_weight
- 1
- objective
- reg:squarederror
- tree_method
- hist
- random_state
- 42
- n_jobs
- 1
- features
- P2-5
- Min history
- 35 days
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Order · run 7de368b68d886 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 7 models · 3 light, 4 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
- Result hash
- 7949 b973 4836