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mape tournament

Run · made 6 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC · the latest run

Run 7de368b68d88

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboost
Sun 7
27.9
25.6
28.5
23.7(winner)
25.1
29.4
27.4
Mon 8 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 9
27.1
25.8
36.2
25.5
24.8(winner)
29.6
28.8
Wed 10
21.6
18.1(winner)
19.5
21.4
23.2
21.9
22.7
Thu 11
23.6
22.9
24.2
21.3(winner)
22.5
22.5
22.8
Fri 12
32.7
27.3(winner)
29.1
32.0
32.0
30.3
34.9
Sat 13
26.0
24.9
34.3
22.3(winner)
22.5
29.3
28.2
Sun 14
24.0
25.3
28.1
23.8
22.9(winner)
28.9
30.5
Mon 15 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 16
49.4
44.7
54.1
39.7
34.1(winner)
38.5
36.2
Wed 17
50.2
48.9
51.2
48.3(winner)
52.6
50.0
51.6
Thu 18
26.5
24.2
23.1
22.6
22.2(winner)
28.9
26.4
Fri 19
20.0
22.3
29.9
15.7(winner)
17.4
16.7
17.6
Sat 20
49.0
41.2
46.5
42.6
39.6
43.5
37.1(winner)
Sun 21
31.2
27.4(winner)
30.4
28.1
30.0
31.1
28.8
Mon 22 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 23
69.0
69.4
83.3
72.4
59.0
59.9
50.2(winner)
Wed 24
118.8
106.5
118.9
112.1
95.3(winner)
118.3
128.3
Thu 25
56.2
40.1
42.7
46.8
29.9
42.5
26.6(winner)
Fri 26
43.6
28.0
25.9
38.8
24.5(winner)
25.6
25.9
Sat 27
39.8
26.9(winner)
31.1
35.5
30.9
30.3
30.3
Sun 28
46.0
31.5
31.2
29.4(winner)
33.5
32.6
31.0
Mon 29 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Tue 30
25.8
29.4
40.5
26.5
19.8(winner)
29.7
27.5
Wed 31
40.1
41.9
37.5
37.4(winner)
39.2
40.6
45.9
Thu 1
24.5
18.4(winner)
20.9
22.6
26.8
33.2
44.3
Fri 2
28.8
21.8(winner)
24.8
28.6
29.1
29.4
27.4
Sat 3
32.7
31.4
36.1
27.9(winner)
30.7
34.1
35.5
Sun 4
66.1
59.4
54.4
49.5
48.3(winner)
64.7
64.8
Mon 5 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

33.4 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 16.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax33.4σ 16.1 · 25 d
  2. 02Ensemble v2ensemble-v235.3σ 19.1 · 25 d
  3. 03Holt-Wintersholt-winters35.8σ 19.8 · 25 d
  4. 04XGBoostxgboost37.2σ 21.3 · 25 d
  5. 05Random Forestrandom-forest37.7σ 19.7 · 25 d
  6. 06Thetatheta39.3σ 21.2 · 25 d
  7. 07Same weekdaysame-weekday40.0σ 21.0 · 25 d

Order · run 7de368b68d886 Oct 2026

Dataset
synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
7 models · 3 light, 4 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock 70a2…
Result hash
7949 b973 4836

Provenance

Run id
7de368b68d88
Result hash
7949b97348366a18b5305e8fee066b03514051ef34d201b90935ff1d2558cff1
Made
6 October 2026, 15:07 UTC
Engine
0.1.0
Git
02e656485d9876683a37769ee2b991cd09c24771 · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
70a28974d04e4b021c1ca20e8ef894aef078feacc73bc737eb6d1151f4d19b17
Command
run --data ../../results/synthetic-year-seed42.csv --name synthetic-year --seed 42 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/weather
Timings
307.226 s in all · same-weekday 0.147 s · ensemble-v2 0.154 s · theta 0.307 s · holt-winters 40.027 s · sarimax 133.528 s · random-forest 120.805 s · xgboost 12.183 s

Dataset

Name
synthetic-year
Seed
42
Hash
7deaf3510c0d63e4f8b825e1e79bfac67c43b3e91f52e89b8d0788d54a2b9002
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
25 dishes
  • Arancini
  • Bruschetta
  • Caprese Salad
  • Capricciosa
  • Diavola
  • Espresso
  • Garlic Bread
  • Gelato
  • Gnocchi al Pesto
  • Grilled Chicken
  • House Red
  • Lasagna
  • Lemonade
  • Margherita
  • Marinara
  • Minestrone
  • Panna Cotta
  • Penne Arrabbiata
  • Quattro Formaggi
  • Risotto ai Funghi
  • Sea Bass
  • Spaghetti al Pomodoro
  • Summer Salad
  • Tiramisu
  • Veal Milanese