Run · made 8 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC · the latest run
Run 8d956fedfb4f
One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.
| Dec 2025–Jan 2026Day | SWsame-weekday | ENSensemble-v2 | THtheta | HWholt-winters | SARsarimax | RFrandom-forest | XGBxgboost | prophetprophet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 7 | 27.9 | 25.6 | 28.5 | 23.7 | 25.1 | 29.4 | 27.4 | 23.6(winner) |
| Mon 8 closed | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Tue 9 | 27.1 | 25.8 | 36.2 | 25.5 | 24.8(winner) | 29.6 | 28.8 | 28.5 |
| Wed 10 | 21.6 | 18.1(winner) | 19.5 | 21.4 | 23.2 | 21.9 | 22.7 | 22.8 |
| Thu 11 | 23.6 | 22.9 | 24.2 | 21.3 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 20.4(winner) |
| Fri 12 | 32.7 | 27.3(winner) | 29.1 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 30.3 | 34.9 | 31.8 |
| Sat 13 | 26.0 | 24.9 | 34.3 | 22.3(winner) | 22.5 | 29.3 | 28.2 | 22.6 |
| Sun 14 | 24.0 | 25.3 | 28.1 | 23.8 | 22.9(winner) | 28.9 | 30.5 | 23.7 |
| Mon 15 closed | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Tue 16 | 49.4 | 44.7 | 54.1 | 39.7 | 34.1(winner) | 38.5 | 36.2 | 46.1 |
| Wed 17 | 50.2 | 48.9 | 51.2 | 48.3(winner) | 52.6 | 50.0 | 51.6 | 54.6 |
| Thu 18 | 26.5 | 24.2 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 22.2(winner) | 28.9 | 26.4 | 23.2 |
| Fri 19 | 20.0 | 22.3 | 29.9 | 15.7(winner) | 17.4 | 16.7 | 17.6 | 16.7 |
| Sat 20 | 49.0 | 41.2 | 46.5 | 42.6 | 39.6 | 43.5 | 37.1(winner) | 49.0 |
| Sun 21 | 31.2 | 27.4(winner) | 30.4 | 28.1 | 30.0 | 31.1 | 28.8 | 31.5 |
| Mon 22 closed | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Tue 23 | 69.0 | 69.4 | 83.3 | 72.4 | 59.0 | 59.9 | 50.2(winner) | 80.9 |
| Wed 24 | 118.8 | 106.5 | 118.9 | 112.1 | 95.3(winner) | 118.3 | 128.3 | 124.9 |
| Thu 25 | 56.2 | 40.1 | 42.7 | 46.8 | 29.9 | 42.5 | 26.6(winner) | 61.1 |
| Fri 26 | 43.6 | 28.0 | 25.9 | 38.8 | 24.5(winner) | 25.6 | 25.9 | 50.1 |
| Sat 27 | 39.8 | 26.9(winner) | 31.1 | 35.5 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 41.6 |
| Sun 28 | 46.0 | 31.5 | 31.2 | 29.4(winner) | 33.5 | 32.6 | 31.0 | 39.5 |
| Mon 29 closed | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
| Tue 30 | 25.8 | 29.4 | 40.5 | 26.5 | 19.8(winner) | 29.7 | 27.5 | 25.0 |
| Wed 31 | 40.1 | 41.9 | 37.5 | 37.4 | 39.2 | 40.6 | 45.9 | 34.2(winner) |
| Thu 1 | 24.5 | 18.4(winner) | 20.9 | 22.6 | 26.8 | 33.2 | 44.3 | 24.4 |
| Fri 2 | 28.8 | 21.8(winner) | 24.8 | 28.6 | 29.1 | 29.4 | 27.4 | 33.4 |
| Sat 3 | 32.7 | 31.4 | 36.1 | 27.9(winner) | 30.7 | 34.1 | 35.5 | 29.4 |
| Sun 4 | 66.1 | 59.4 | 54.4 | 49.5 | 48.3(winner) | 64.7 | 64.8 | 59.5 |
| Mon 5 closed | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet
Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.
MAPE %lower is better
- 0–20
- 20–25
- 25–30
- 30–40
- 40+
- ND
- fail
- short
- day winner
Best average
33.4 %
sarimax
Steadiest
σ 16.1
sarimax
Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better
- 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax33.4σ 16.1 · 25 d
- 02Ensemble v2ensemble-v235.3σ 19.1 · 25 d
- 03Holt-Wintersholt-winters35.8σ 19.8 · 25 d
- 04XGBoostxgboost37.2σ 21.3 · 25 d
- 05Random Forestrandom-forest37.7σ 19.7 · 25 d
- 06Thetatheta39.3σ 21.2 · 25 d
- 07Prophetprophet39.9σ 23.2 · 25 d
- 08Same weekdaysame-weekday40.0σ 21.0 · 25 d
Order · run 8d956fedfb4f8 Oct 2026
- Dataset
- synthetic-year · seed 42 · 7dea…
- Window
- 30 origin days · h = 1
- Roster
- 8 models · 3 light, 5 heavy
- Engine
- py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b01c…
- Result hash
- e83f 188b 35fa
Provenance
- Run id
- 8d956fedfb4f
- Result hash
- e83f188b35fa0728543a21fb1499d6ec4b6ad0f2b4031038fe94c388ba7494fc
- Made
- 8 October 2026, 06:52 UTC
- Engine
- 0.3.0
- Git
- c09cec65e531228f35fe4c2cc18439f9f40bc0de · clean tree
- Python
- 3.12.15
- Platform
- macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
- BLAS
- not reported
- Threads
- OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
- uv.lock
- b01caa1c0390cbcf09377efc9598ff8fc619810a2834206b1ff57ecd36d79003
- Command
- run --data ../../results/synthetic-year-seed42.csv --name synthetic-year --seed 42 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/weather
- Timings
- 409.262 s in all · same-weekday 0.146 s · ensemble-v2 0.151 s · theta 0.304 s · holt-winters 54.863 s · sarimax 187.861 s · random-forest 130.120 s · xgboost 12.230 s · prophet 23.507 s
Dataset
- Name
- synthetic-year
- Seed
- 42
- Hash
- 7deaf3510c0d63e4f8b825e1e79bfac67c43b3e91f52e89b8d0788d54a2b9002
- Dates
- 6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
- 25 dishes
- Arancini
- Bruschetta
- Caprese Salad
- Capricciosa
- Diavola
- Espresso
- Garlic Bread
- Gelato
- Gnocchi al Pesto
- Grilled Chicken
- House Red
- Lasagna
- Lemonade
- Margherita
- Marinara
- Minestrone
- Panna Cotta
- Penne Arrabbiata
- Quattro Formaggi
- Risotto ai Funghi
- Sea Bass
- Spaghetti al Pomodoro
- Summer Salad
- Tiramisu
- Veal Milanese