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Run · made 9 Oct 2026, 14:20 UTC · the café

Run d4b08f584cfc

One run of the tournament in full: its matrix, what it was made with, and the data it read. The run id and the result hash are printed whole, to copy.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
34.1
29.5
37.3
27.4
25.8
30.1
34.5
26.9
23.7(winner)
Mon 8
26.0
42.5
55.2
29.9
28.2
25.0(winner)
29.1
28.4
31.3
Tue 9 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 10
30.7
47.9
75.1
31.3
27.4(winner)
31.7
31.7
28.8
43.3
Thu 11
33.0
31.9
43.8
29.2
29.4
27.2(winner)
31.7
29.2
33.1
Fri 12
56.1(winner)
67.7
83.4
58.5
59.4
63.9
67.1
58.9
117.6
Sat 13
26.4
26.8
36.2
19.5
21.4
23.2
24.0
19.1(winner)
21.9
Sun 14
30.3
31.0
40.8
34.2
28.6
36.9
36.5
31.3
25.7(winner)
Mon 15
83.3
144.6
173.0
94.8
52.2(winner)
74.6
77.7
97.7
128.9
Tue 16 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 17
59.3
73.6
109.9
62.2
62.9
71.1
68.5
66.6
48.8(winner)
Thu 18
32.1
31.4
43.9
25.1
24.0(winner)
29.2
32.1
26.7
25.9
Fri 19
25.5
24.5
37.4
23.0
21.6(winner)
23.3
27.6
24.4
46.0
Sat 20
50.7
41.0
41.9
41.3
38.9
36.6
31.6(winner)
41.1
38.8
Sun 21
25.4(winner)
26.2
39.2
26.1
28.0
29.3
29.5
25.9
28.9
Mon 22
45.4
70.2
90.7
44.3
40.2
45.8
39.1(winner)
44.4
74.0
Tue 23 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 24
38.7
50.6
80.9
36.6
34.0(winner)
38.8
43.1
38.0
48.8
Thu 25 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Fri 26
42.2
34.2
37.9
30.1
25.3(winner)
28.9
68.3
32.0
34.6
Sat 27
50.1
35.8
40.1
36.5
34.6
34.6
35.1
40.5
33.4(winner)
Sun 28
48.9
30.2
29.8(winner)
34.3
35.2
33.8
32.3
38.5
34.6
Mon 29
28.5(winner)
58.5
86.0
32.9
35.6
32.7
37.1
38.3
75.6
Tue 30 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 31
59.6
99.1
162.1
61.3
57.7
72.0
82.4
71.2
44.9(winner)
Thu 1
63.3(winner)
78.4
128.7
81.7
83.3
105.1
79.3
93.4
67.2
Fri 2
34.8
34.4
44.7
34.1
34.8
32.7(winner)
37.1
35.6
46.6
Sat 3
20.5
20.7
34.8
20.9
23.6
22.2
19.0(winner)
23.0
22.3
Sun 4
83.1
66.6
62.4
65.2
68.6
80.4
81.9
72.3
57.2(winner)
Mon 5
51.0
94.0
121.1
49.1
32.8(winner)
42.6
46.9
61.5
99.6

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

38.1 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 16.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax38.1σ 16.1 · 25 d
  2. 02Holt-Wintersholt-winters41.2σ 18.9 · 25 d
  3. 03Random Forestrandom-forest42.9σ 21.4 · 25 d
  4. 04Same weekdaysame-weekday43.1σ 16.9 · 25 d
  5. 05Prophetprophet43.7σ 21.4 · 25 d
  6. 06XGBoostxgboost44.9σ 19.8 · 25 d
  7. 07LSTMlstm50.1σ 28.5 · 25 d
  8. 08Ensemble v2ensemble-v251.7σ 29.0 · 25 d
  9. 09Thetatheta69.4σ 40.3 · 25 d

Order · run d4b08f584cfc9 Oct 2026

Dataset
cafe-year · seed 7 · ff51…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
cc8b 44e3 f00c

Provenance

Run id
d4b08f584cfc
Result hash
cc8b44e3f00cc522225d08d8537e25594eb89b606fee80f5de76d574efa2652e
Made
9 October 2026, 14:20 UTC
Engine
0.5.0
Git
e7e691174f82abd902f9be74537e0d8b2d035245 · clean tree
Python
3.12.15
Platform
macOS-26.6.2-arm64-arm-64bit
BLAS
not reported
Threads
OMP_NUM_THREADS 1 · OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS 1 · MKL_NUM_THREADS 1
uv.lock
b7dfb3f9d4606cd2b464126a0fcff4efc2bcfe2303cbcea98471aa59e8a1fc49
Command
run --data ../../results/cafe-year-seed7.csv --name cafe-year --seed 7 --window 30 --models all --weather ../../data/weather/cubelles.csv --out ../../results/cafe
Timings
643.629 s in all · same-weekday 0.168 s · ensemble-v2 0.175 s · theta 0.338 s · holt-winters 62.944 s · sarimax 187.601 s · random-forest 143.237 s · xgboost 14.101 s · prophet 30.920 s · lstm 204.025 s

Dataset

Name
cafe-year
Seed
7
Hash
ff51ba489a81ba714705d2092d3b2d382d6f4e3e0f6b1c0838246ac28c573a08
Dates
6 Jan 2025 – 5 Jan 2026 · 365 days
25 dishes
  • Avocado Toast
  • Banana Bread
  • Bocadillo de Jamón
  • Brunch Plate
  • Café con Leche
  • Cappuccino
  • Carrot Cake
  • Cortado
  • Croissant
  • Eggs Benedict
  • Ensaïmada
  • Espresso
  • Fresh Orange Juice
  • Granola Bowl
  • Ice Cream Cup
  • Iced Latte
  • Lemonade
  • Matcha Latte
  • Mimosa
  • Pain au Chocolat
  • Pan con Tomate
  • Pancakes
  • Seasonal Soup
  • Shakshuka
  • Tortilla Pintxo