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Run d4b08f584cfc · 30 origin dates · 25 dishes · 9 models · the café

Who Forecast Each Day Best?

Every model forecasts tomorrow’s portions of every dish from the days before it. Each tile is that day’s MAPE: lower is better, and the tomato corner marks the winner.

SARIMAX + weather won the run with an average MAPE of 38.1, 5.0 points below the naive baseline, Same weekday.

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MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
34.1
29.5
37.3
27.4
25.8
30.1
34.5
26.9
23.7(winner)
Mon 8
26.0
42.5
55.2
29.9
28.2
25.0(winner)
29.1
28.4
31.3
Tue 9 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 10
30.7
47.9
75.1
31.3
27.4(winner)
31.7
31.7
28.8
43.3
Thu 11
33.0
31.9
43.8
29.2
29.4
27.2(winner)
31.7
29.2
33.1
Fri 12
56.1(winner)
67.7
83.4
58.5
59.4
63.9
67.1
58.9
117.6
Sat 13
26.4
26.8
36.2
19.5
21.4
23.2
24.0
19.1(winner)
21.9
Sun 14
30.3
31.0
40.8
34.2
28.6
36.9
36.5
31.3
25.7(winner)
Mon 15
83.3
144.6
173.0
94.8
52.2(winner)
74.6
77.7
97.7
128.9
Tue 16 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 17
59.3
73.6
109.9
62.2
62.9
71.1
68.5
66.6
48.8(winner)
Thu 18
32.1
31.4
43.9
25.1
24.0(winner)
29.2
32.1
26.7
25.9
Fri 19
25.5
24.5
37.4
23.0
21.6(winner)
23.3
27.6
24.4
46.0
Sat 20
50.7
41.0
41.9
41.3
38.9
36.6
31.6(winner)
41.1
38.8
Sun 21
25.4(winner)
26.2
39.2
26.1
28.0
29.3
29.5
25.9
28.9
Mon 22
45.4
70.2
90.7
44.3
40.2
45.8
39.1(winner)
44.4
74.0
Tue 23 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 24
38.7
50.6
80.9
36.6
34.0(winner)
38.8
43.1
38.0
48.8
Thu 25 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Fri 26
42.2
34.2
37.9
30.1
25.3(winner)
28.9
68.3
32.0
34.6
Sat 27
50.1
35.8
40.1
36.5
34.6
34.6
35.1
40.5
33.4(winner)
Sun 28
48.9
30.2
29.8(winner)
34.3
35.2
33.8
32.3
38.5
34.6
Mon 29
28.5(winner)
58.5
86.0
32.9
35.6
32.7
37.1
38.3
75.6
Tue 30 closed
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
Wed 31
59.6
99.1
162.1
61.3
57.7
72.0
82.4
71.2
44.9(winner)
Thu 1
63.3(winner)
78.4
128.7
81.7
83.3
105.1
79.3
93.4
67.2
Fri 2
34.8
34.4
44.7
34.1
34.8
32.7(winner)
37.1
35.6
46.6
Sat 3
20.5
20.7
34.8
20.9
23.6
22.2
19.0(winner)
23.0
22.3
Sun 4
83.1
66.6
62.4
65.2
68.6
80.4
81.9
72.3
57.2(winner)
Mon 5
51.0
94.0
121.1
49.1
32.8(winner)
42.6
46.9
61.5
99.6

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

38.1 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 16.1

sarimax

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax38.1σ 16.1 · 25 d
  2. 02Holt-Wintersholt-winters41.2σ 18.9 · 25 d
  3. 03Random Forestrandom-forest42.9σ 21.4 · 25 d
  4. 04Same weekdaysame-weekday43.1σ 16.9 · 25 d
  5. 05Prophetprophet43.7σ 21.4 · 25 d
  6. 06XGBoostxgboost44.9σ 19.8 · 25 d
  7. 07LSTMlstm50.1σ 28.5 · 25 d
  8. 08Ensemble v2ensemble-v251.7σ 29.0 · 25 d
  9. 09Thetatheta69.4σ 40.3 · 25 d

Order · run d4b08f584cfc9 Oct 2026

Dataset
cafe-year · seed 7 · ff51…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
cc8b 44e3 f00c