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Run 92ddd9a606e8 · 30 origin dates · 8 tickets · 9 models · the travel agency

Who Forecast Each Day Best?

Every model forecasts tomorrow’s ticket sales for every destination from the days before it. Each tile is that day’s MAPE: lower is better, and the tomato corner marks the winner.

SARIMAX + weather won the run with an average MAPE of 22.9, 3.9 points below the naive baseline, Same weekday.

Have sales of your own? Run the same tournament on them — in your browser, and the file never leaves it.

MAPE per model per origin date
Dec 2025–Jan 2026Daysame-weekdayensemble-v2thetaholt-winterssarimaxrandom-forestxgboostprophetlstm
Sun 7
33.2
37.4
43.0
27.2
24.7
33.3
20.6(winner)
27.7
33.4
Mon 8
24.1
14.9(winner)
18.5
18.9
20.1
16.8
15.2
19.9
21.3
Tue 9
18.4
22.5
24.1
16.1
14.5(winner)
15.8
18.9
17.4
28.2
Wed 10
15.0
9.6
12.2
10.0
7.3
11.1
4.7(winner)
10.3
14.8
Thu 11
16.4
14.8
16.9
17.3
19.2
20.0
21.5
18.4
14.6(winner)
Fri 12
17.8
21.5
20.4
20.5
18.8
26.9
23.8
18.0
15.4(winner)
Sat 13
31.1
73.3
118.1
27.0
29.8
85.3
64.3
23.8(winner)
101.2
Sun 14
29.2
30.7
39.8
26.8
25.0
37.9
41.2
24.3(winner)
34.4
Mon 15
40.2
32.1
24.5
31.8
33.2
32.1
35.7
30.5
22.9(winner)
Tue 16
13.8
15.0
19.5
15.7
13.8(winner)
16.4
23.1
14.8
21.2
Wed 17
18.5
17.0
20.3
19.3
16.9(winner)
20.3
21.1
18.2
20.9
Thu 18
35.7
36.5
36.1
33.2
33.7
51.0
46.4
33.2(winner)
36.3
Fri 19
42.3
35.3
30.0
20.2(winner)
21.8
30.6
27.0
20.6
24.1
Sat 20
24.2
47.1
87.2
17.0
14.2(winner)
18.3
21.2
18.6
74.9
Sun 21
74.4
68.7
73.0
49.6
49.0
56.4
46.2(winner)
52.1
62.6
Mon 22
13.2
11.6
21.4
9.8
11.6
13.5
12.5
9.0(winner)
24.8
Tue 23
21.0
16.6(winner)
17.5
21.4
22.0
18.4
28.8
21.0
17.8
Wed 24
11.7
9.8
10.4
8.8(winner)
10.1
11.2
9.7
10.4
12.8
Thu 25
69.8
69.8
71.6
71.9
73.8
75.3
73.2
73.6
65.6(winner)
Fri 26
30.1
24.2
21.6(winner)
23.9
23.1
24.0
26.5
23.4
23.7
Sat 27
33.2
52.4
96.6
27.3
20.8
22.0
14.8(winner)
27.7
90.5
Sun 28
22.9
16.0
22.2
9.8
8.9(winner)
16.0
16.9
10.7
18.9
Mon 29
18.7
16.4
29.5
10.9
11.1
17.4
18.7
10.5(winner)
29.8
Tue 30
19.6
28.3
35.1
19.5
18.6(winner)
24.2
20.5
19.0
34.1
Wed 31
12.1
13.2
15.5
12.3
11.9
9.5(winner)
12.6
11.1
15.3
Thu 1
44.8(winner)
56.4
59.6
57.1
62.8
62.4
62.4
59.1
55.2
Fri 2
7.2(winner)
9.2
12.7
11.0
10.3
10.5
11.1
10.4
12.1
Sat 3
16.1
44.2
86.7
12.4
13.8
14.5
11.0(winner)
12.7
80.5
Sun 4
28.0
24.4
31.8
22.2
22.5
21.1
20.5(winner)
22.5
28.0
Mon 5
21.1
17.4(winner)
20.8
19.2
24.3
20.7
17.6
20.8
21.3

SW same-weekday · ENS ensemble-v2 · TH theta · HW holt-winters · SAR sarimax · RF random-forest · XGB xgboost · prophet · lstm

Scroll the table for all 30 days — the model row and the day column stay in view.

MAPE %lower is better

  • 0–20
  • 20–25
  • 25–30
  • 30–40
  • 40+
  • ND
  • fail
  • short
  • day winner

Best average

22.9 %

sarimax

Steadiest

σ 14.1

holt-winters

Leaderboard · avg MAPElower is better

  1. 01SARIMAX + weathersarimax22.9σ 15.0 · 30 d
  2. 02Holt-Wintersholt-winters22.9σ 14.1 · 30 d
  3. 03Prophetprophet23.0σ 14.6 · 30 d
  4. 04XGBoostxgboost26.3σ 16.7 · 30 d
  5. 05Same weekdaysame-weekday26.8σ 15.3 · 30 d
  6. 06Random Forestrandom-forest27.8σ 19.1 · 30 d
  7. 07Ensemble v2ensemble-v229.5σ 18.6 · 30 d
  8. 08LSTMlstm35.2σ 24.3 · 30 d
  9. 09Thetatheta37.9σ 28.3 · 30 d

Order · run 92ddd9a606e811 Oct 2026

Dataset
tickets-year · seed 13 · f5f6…
Window
30 origin days · h = 1
Roster
9 models · 3 light, 6 heavy
Engine
py 3.12.15 · uv.lock b7df…
Result hash
8ac9 b0e8 6440